Noxville's model of The International 10 winners
Esports analyst Ben "Noxville" Steenhuisen calculated the probability of teams winning The International 10. PSG.LGD, Evil Geniuses, and Team Secret are in the top-3.
The analyst said the table is based on several stats, such as recent results, draft variance, the number of days played together, and more. The current model is just an initial and can change depending on incoming information: tournament format announcements, group stage and playoff seeding, etc.
In the current version, all 4 Chinese teams are in the top-8 and PSG.LGD has the highest chance of winning among all participants – 18.86%. From the CIS, Virtus Pro has the highest chance to win – 5th place with 9.98%, while Team Spirit is only in 9th place with 3.47%. Teams from South America and Southeast Asia have the weakest chance to win by the current model.
The International 2021 will be held from October 7 to 17 in Bucharest, Romania. The prize pool for the championship will be $40,018,195.